Josh Shapiro grapples with Pennsylvania's divided government ahead of a possible 2028 bid
- - Josh Shapiro grapples with Pennsylvania's divided government ahead of a possible 2028 bid
Allan SmithJanuary 5, 2026 at 7:00 AM
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Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, who is dealing with a divided Legislature, hasn't been able to pass the big-ticket Democratic items that some other potential 2028 candidates have been able to in bluer states. (Jared Soares for NBC News)
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro has been dealing with one big thing that sets him apart from other potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidates: a divided state Legislature and all the tricky political compromises that come with it.
Shapiro frequently talks up his handling of this split, particularly in recent weeks after navigating a budget impasse that lasted more than four months.
After signing the budget in November, Shapiro said a divided Legislature “requires all of us to compromise, have tough conversations, and ultimately, find common ground.” Last month, speaking at the Pennsylvania Society, an annual gathering in New York of the state’s political and business elite, the governor promoted his understanding of “the power of partnership and collaboration” and “of finding common ground.”
“That’s the Pennsylvania way,” he said, per prepared remarks, noting the state is one of just three in the country with the legislative chambers controlled by different parties. “In Pennsylvania, to get stuff done, we work together. And even in this era of extraordinary political polarization, we are showing that we can do just that.”
As a result, Shapiro hasn’t been able to land major Democratic wish-list policies, and some of his compromises have angered members of his party. And with Republicans controlling the state Senate, Shapiro has had to deal with thorny oversight.
“He’s right, it’s very hard,” a Pennsylvania Democrat who requested anonymity to speak candidly said of working with a split Legislature.
“It’s certainly different than a Wes Moore or a [Gavin] Newsom,” this person added, referring to the governors of Maryland and California.
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, another 2028 contender, has also had a split Legislature this session, though she oversaw a Democratic trifecta for two years following her 2022 re-election.
Whitmer, Moore, Newsom and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker all raised the minimum wage in their states, which Shapiro has so far been unable to do. Democratic-controlled legislatures have allowed those governors to sign into law environmental, economic and social policies that Republicans have prevented Shapiro from enacting in Pennsylvania. Just last year, Newsom signed nearly 800 bills into law that California’s Democratic-dominated Legislature sent his way.
In Pennsylvania, many Democrats who spoke with NBC News said they believe Shapiro has deftly handled the ins and outs of a split Legislature and that this experience could be beneficial in a future bid for higher office, though perhaps more so in a general election than a primary.
“I look at people around the country, and I just don’t see a plethora of individuals who could handle this configuration as well as he has,” said Larry Ceisler, a Democratic public affairs executive in the state. “One of the other challenges he has is there are senators in that Republican caucus who feel like they’re doing the party a duty and obstructing Josh in case he runs for president.”
“But if he does run for president, one of the things I’m sure he’s going to talk about is electability, and the fact that he comes from a state with divided government is a plus,” Ceisler added. “The other thing he’s going to be able to talk about is in Pennsylvania, there’s a large number of people who voted for Donald Trump and have voted for Josh Shapiro.”
State Senate President Pro Tempore Kim Ward, a Republican, said that Shapiro, seeing the limits of what can be passed in Harrisburg, largely acted as “referee” in the latest budget dealings, deferring to legislators while abstaining from proposing a bolder policy agenda.
“I don’t know if the reason is he treads lightly because … he doesn’t want anything on his hands that could hurt him nationally,” she said.
She believes Republicans are actually doing Shapiro a favor by acting as a bulwark against Democratic policies that could prove troublesome for him in a future general election. As an example, Ward pointed to state House Democrats recently approving a joint resolution to add an abortion rights amendment to the state constitution, an initiative Senate Republicans would not pass.
“I think it helps keep his numbers up in Pennsylvania, because this is a purple state,” she added. “If you just go totally left-wing blue, you’re not going to have that popularity for long.”
All of these dynamics were at play during this year’s budget impasse. After months of negotiations, a deal came into focus after transit funding — Shapiro had proposed a 1.75% increase for state transit systems — was removed from the package. Another hurdle was cleared when Shapiro agreed to withdraw Pennsylvania from the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, a plan to fight climate change that was a longtime target of state Republicans.
The $50 billion spending package passed both branches of the Legislature with an overwhelming bipartisan vote. Shapiro highlighted several provisions in the budget, including $900 million in education funding, a new earned income tax credit and child care initiatives.
Republicans cheered permitting reforms included in the deal — which Shapiro also advocated for — plus the fact that it created no new taxes or spent from the state’s rainy day fund, as well as the withdrawal from the RGGI.
“Usually you have conservative organized groups that will come out and just beat the crap out of you, but it didn’t happen,” Ward said, noting state Republicans have mostly embraced the deal.
Pennsylvania Democratic leaders said that while pulling out of the RGGI was painful, it was the best compromise they could make, especially considering the state’s participation is already the subject of a lawsuit before the state Supreme Court. They also pointed to environmental protection initiatives that were included in the plan, including funding for solar energy.
“So it wasn’t easy, but I think folks recognize that given the situation with the court case pending … what we had to give up was less compared to what we received,” said state Sen. Jay Costa, the Democratic Senate minority leader. “It was a tremendous win for Democrats.”
Pennsylvania House Speaker Joanna McClinton, a Democrat, said the deal “included a lot of priorities we outlined from the beginning” and that Shapiro remained steadfast amid the impasse, “staying at the table, convening with people who didn’t want to work with him.”
For his part, Shapiro said transit funding “remains a critically important priority,” while the withdrawal from the RGGI gives him latitude to move forward on new energy policy.
Not everyone is thrilled; the pushback from some Democrats and environmental groups in the state has been substantial. Two Democratic state senators and four Democratic state representatives voted against the budget, citing what they believed was a cave on the RGGI. The Pennsylvania Democrat described the RGGI repeal as “not him caving so much as it’s finally getting an annoying political nuisance out of the way.”
Polling has been scant since the deal was struck. But a survey taken during the budget fight showed Shapiro, who has long enjoyed sterling approval ratings in the pivotal battleground state, did not suffer from the stalemate. In October, a Quinnipiac survey found 60% of Pennsylvania voters approved of his job performance while 58% viewed him favorably. That survey showed him with a 16-point edge over state Treasurer Stacy Garrity, the likely GOP gubernatorial nominee, and a 10-point edge over Vice President JD Vance in a hypothetical 2028 presidential contest.
Additionally, the poll found 46% of Pennsylvania voters blamed the Democratic-controlled House and Republican-controlled Senate equally for the impasse. Another 26% blamed the state Senate, more while 21% put more blame on the state House.
“What [Republicans] did was politically motivated,” state Rep. Ryan Bizzarro, a Democrat, said of the impasse. “They know it was politically motivated, and it ended up backfiring in their face. They were willing to hurt the people in their communities just to try to make the governor look bad. And guess what? It didn’t work. His approval ratings went up.”
The budget deal has stirred some conservative ire. Garrity expressed skepticism about the agreement in a radio appearance days after it was struck, saying it was “crazy” that officials in Harrisburg were “patting themselves on the back.”
“There are pieces of this budget that I do not like,” said state Sen. Joe Pittman, the Republican Senate leader, pointing to total spending. “By and large, our membership recognizes that we are in a divided government.”
As for oversight his caucus is conducting into the governor and his administration, Pittman insisted they were not trying to sully Shapiro ahead of a national run for office. State Senate Republicans are investigating his use of taxpayer-funded charter flights as well as the cost of security upgrades to Shapiro’s personal residence after a would-be assassin firebombed the governor’s mansion in April.
“The fixation on his national profile is way overblown relative to the work we do in the Senate,” Pittman said. “The reality is we have an obligation as a coequal branch of government to conduct oversight of any executive of any administration, and we have been every step of the way thoughtful and considerate about how to do that. It’s no different than any other administration in the divided government. It’s certainly no different than what we see in Washington, D.C., when there’s a divided government.”
Given the Senate map nationally, J.J. Abbott, a Pennsylvania-based Democratic strategist, said it’s hard to envision a scenario where there isn’t a divided Congress for the next president to handle. That could play to Shapiro’s advantage, given his experience with the dynamic back home.
“For the next president, there is going to be a lot of stuff that is screwed up, a lot of stuff they’re going to have to fix,” Abbott said. “So competency is going to be a big thing. But to actually be able to get anything done legislatively … this is probably something that would prepare someone for that reality.”
Source: “AOL Breaking”
